Canada’s Labour Market Shifts as Foreign Worker Arrivals Fall Below 2025 Targets
Canada’s immigration data shows that foreign worker arrivals in 2025 have already decreased significantly, putting the country on track to meet the major reductions planned for 2026. According to government statistics, Canada has admitted more than 100,000 fewer foreign workers compared to the 2025 target—primarily due to policy shifts affecting the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and the International Mobility Program (IMP).
This marks one of the largest year-over-year slowdowns in Canada’s temporary worker intake in the past decade.
1. Canada Is Already on Track for 2026 Reductions
The Government of Canada announced in 2024 that it would reduce temporary resident levels by 2026, targeting a major cut to foreign worker admissions.
By late 2025, data shows the reductions are already happening naturally through:
- Stricter labour market rules
- Reduced Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) approvals
- More limited employer access to low-wage workers
- Scaling back of open work permit pathways
As a result, current foreign worker admissions are more than 100,000 below what was projected for 2025, suggesting the country may exceed its 2026 reduction goals ahead of schedule.
2. Key Data Overview
Foreign Worker Admissions — Actual vs. Projected (2024–2026)
| Year | Projected | Actual/Estimated | Change | Trend |
| 2024 | 605,000 | 580,000 | -25,000 | Small decline |
| 2025 | 550,000 | 440,000 | -110,000 | Major decline |
| 2026 Target | 430,000 | TBD | On track | Expected stabilization |
Reductions by Program
| Category / Program | 2024 | 2025 Estimate | Change | % Change | Notes |
| IMP Total | 360,000 | 260,000 | -100,000 | -28% | Biggest drop |
| • Open Work Permits (Spouses) | 140,000 | 90,000 | -50,000 | -36% | Tightened eligibility |
| • PGWP | 65,000 | 45,000 | -20,000 | -30% | Public-private college restriction |
| • Employer-Specific IMP | 155,000 | 125,000 | -30,000 | -19% | More audits |
| TFWP Total | 220,000 | 180,000 | -40,000 | -18% | LMIA tightened |
3. Why the International Mobility Program (IMP) Saw the Greatest Reductions
The IMP accounts for the biggest drop in foreign worker arrivals. Several factors contributed:
a. Reduced availability of open work permits
Canada has been shifting away from broad open-work categories, especially:
- Post-graduation work permits (PGWP) — new restrictions in 2024 for public college partnerships
- Open work permits for spouses — no longer universal across occupations
- Fewer humanitarian open work-permit exemptions
b. Employer-specific programs tightened
Some employer-specific work permits under IMP saw:
- Higher refusal rates
- Increased compliance audits
- Additional documentation requirements
c. Shift toward permanent immigration
The federal government wants the number of temporary residents to fall to 5% of the population by 2026.
IMP reductions are central to achieving this.
4. What This Means for Employers and Foreign Workers
For Employers
- Expect longer processing times for both LMIA and IMP permits
- Prepare for more compliance checks
- Consider alternative pathways such as PR-focused recruitment
- Higher wages or improved working conditions may be required
For Foreign Workers
- Fewer open work permit options
- Stricter eligibility rules
- Must demonstrate stronger ties, qualifications, or job offers
- Transitioning to PR is becoming more difficult but pathways still exist
5. Policy Outlook for Late 2025 and 2026
Canada is expected to continue reducing temporary resident entries through:
- Updated LMIA rules
- Stricter study-permit issuance
- Further restrictions on PGWP eligibility
- New caps on employer sectors with high reliance on temporary labour
The transition marks a structural shift toward a more controlled approach to temporary labour.
6. Conclusion
Canada’s temporary foreign worker arrivals in 2025 indicate the country is already aligned with the planned 2026 reductions, with over 100,000 fewer workers admitted than expected.
The biggest drop occurs in the IMP, driven by policy reform and reduced open-permit categories.
Employers and workers should prepare for a more selective system—one prioritizing permanent, stable immigration over temporary labour dependence.